US President Donald Trump has claimed that the seven-month war with Iran will end “immediately after” the November midterm elections, suggesting Tehran is trying to influence the vote. Analysts, however, say the conflict could shape the election outcome and potentially alter the course of the war.
“They are desperately trying to influence the election, ” Trump told reporters last Wednesday.
Trump’s claims about Iran’s surrender are not new. Tehran has so far withstood continued US and Israeli attacks aimed at completely destroying Iran’s military capabilities.
A naval blockade has also been imposed on Iranian ports to pressure the country’s economy. The United States increased economic pressure further in late August and threatened secondary sanctions against countries trading with Iran.
Ali Alavi, an Iran specialist at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, said Trump’s prediction that Iran would collapse after the election was “probably a statement aimed at a domestic audience”.
“It was Trump’s way of communicating that the only reason he might be seen as failing on Iran policy before the midterms was because Iran wanted it to appear that way, ” Alavi said.
The cost of Iran’s refusal to surrender is being felt across the United States ahead of the midterm elections, in which Trump’s Republican Party could lose control of one or both chambers of Congress.
Petrol prices, a key indicator of living costs in the world’s largest economy, have risen sharply. According to the American Automobile Association, the average price of petrol in the United States has reached $4.27 a gallon, nearly 30% higher than a year ago.
Trump’s approval rating has also fallen significantly. Public support for his performance was in the high 40s when he returned to office in January 2025. The rating has now dropped to the mid-to-high 30 s.
Financial pressure on US voters extends beyond petrol prices. A 2026 LendingTree survey found that 29% of people using buy now, pay later services had used such loans to purchase everyday essentials. Another 47% said they had failed at least once over the past year to make repayments on time.
Economists at the University of Michigan have found that rising energy prices and inflation linked to the Iran war are weighing on consumer confidence and purchasing power.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at London-based think tank Chatham House, said Iran had prepared for a long war.
“Iran may also have had a second plan, ” Vakil said. “When it realised that negotiations with the current administration were not producing results, it planned to survive long enough to destabilise the US midterm elections. ”
Senior Democratic Party leaders, including Senate leader Chuck Schumer, have explicitly called on Trump to stop the war against Iran.
H. A. Hellyer, an international policy analyst at the Center for American Progress, said the political environment ahead of the November 3 congressional midterm elections suggested that Republicans, rather than Democrats, were more likely to lose ground because of the Iran war and other issues.
“The question is really turnout, ” Hellyer said. “Many voters in the Republican base are not suddenly going to start supporting Democrats. They are more likely to stay home and not vote. ”
Foreign policy does not usually have a major impact on voter decisions, Hellyer said, but added that “the economy matters”.
“The prices of goods matter, such as the petrol they buy at the pump, ” Hellyer said. “And that may be what changes the outcome. ”
Despite claims of military success, both the United States and Israel will face voters whose leaders had promised quick victories. Trump will face that reckoning in the US midterm elections in November, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face a crucial general election in October.
Iran faces no comparable electoral deadline. The country is led by an unelected supreme leader, and its next parliamentary election is not expected before 2028.
“For Iran, victory means surviving long enough to extract a serious diplomatic commitment from its adversaries that it will not be attacked again, ” Vakil said.
“Victory means demonstrating influence, but it is a negative kind of influence, ” Vakil said. “Whatever the state of its military capabilities, Iran can still prove that it can disrupt the world economy. ”
Vakil said some members of Iran’s government viewed maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz as important, while others saw it only as a potential bargaining tool in negotiations.
“For everyone, however, victory means survival and finding a way to turn that survival into stability, ” Vakil said. “That is a difficult task. ”
Source: Al Jazeera