US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were progressing well and that there was a strong chance of reaching a deal to ease the conflict between the two countries, while warning that US attacks would resume if the negotiations produced no result, according to Reuters.
Amid Trump’s optimism, Tehran appeared to test the suspension of US military operations. Reports emerged on Monday of drone attacks launched from Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq. Washington had abruptly halted its air campaign against Iran on Saturday after two weeks of sustained strikes, a shift in strategy during a conflict that has lasted five months.
Trump said, “We are having quite good conversations. I think there is a great opportunity for something positive to happen. If that happens, that would be very good. And if not, then we will go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.”
Speaking at a campaign rally in Michigan late on Monday, Trump said of Iran, “They cannot be subdued with bribes anymore. They have to be defeated, and we will crush them completely. But let’s see where this ends up. At the moment, the discussions are proceeding in a fairly friendly atmosphere.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that messages were still being exchanged between the two sides through mediators and that Iran had not completely abandoned diplomacy. Baghaei rejected reports that Iran had itself requested talks, calling them “fabricated stories”. He said, “It is not in our blood to make such pleas on our own.”
A senior Iranian official had told Reuters on Sunday that Iran would also suspend its attacks as long as Trump’s self-declared ceasefire remained in place. However, late on Monday, Iran’s central military command accused the United States of threatening other vessels and fuel-carrying oil tankers in its maritime waters and trying to impose “an illegal naval blockade”, which it said was further inflaming tensions in the region.
Saudi Arabia said it had shot down several drones targeting Riyadh and other oil-related facilities across the country. Saudi authorities said the drones had been launched from Iraq by Iran-backed armed groups. Saudi Arabia said it reserved the right to respond appropriately.
In Yemen, the Iran-aligned Houthis said they had attacked the East-West pipeline supplying oil to Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea port, in retaliation for what they described as an incursion by Saudi drones. At the same time, Tehran again stressed that control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy transit route, remained in its hands. Trump had called for all ships to be allowed to pass freely through the strait.
Public dissatisfaction with the war is adding pressure on Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, in which they are trying to defend a narrow congressional majority. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating had risen slightly to 37 per cent, three points above last month’s low.
Even so, only one in three Americans supports the Iran war, the lowest Reuters/Ipsos reading since the conflict began. Most respondents said Trump had failed to explain the main objective of the war.
International oil prices fell sharply after Trump’s remarks on talks and the suspension of the US operation following 13 consecutive nights of heavy bombing. On the same day, US crude fell 8.21 per cent to $81.98 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped 9.31 per cent to $87.77 a barrel.
According to one US official and several US media reports, Trump decided to halt the airstrikes after military advisers said the campaign had reached the limit of what could be achieved from the air. The US official told Reuters that military commanders had informed the president there were no new targets left to strike. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine had also expressed concern that the munitions used in the air campaign were being depleted quickly.
Trump, however, dismissed suggestions of a munitions shortage. He said the US military was moving quickly to refill stockpiles depleted by large weapons shipments to Ukraine, while also expressing a desire for “more modern and more advanced equipment”.