The United States and Israel have developed specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, The New York Times reported, citing US officials and people familiar with the planning.
US and Israeli forces have increased military exercises as preparations advance for a short but extensive and intense military operation. Fighter jets have flown through Iraqi airspace to practise attack tactics.
US officials said Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss possible new strikes.
Potential targets could include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone stockpiles. Some officials believe another major round of attacks could push Iran’s economy into a severe crisis and force Tehran to make concessions in diplomatic negotiations after nearly eight months of conflict.
Doubts remain, however, over whether a new war would be more successful than the first phase of intense US-Israeli strikes between February and April. That conflict raised global energy prices and inflation, weakened Middle East security and placed severe pressure on the Pentagon’s stockpile of missile-defence weapons.
Uncertainty also surrounds whether President Donald Trump would approve renewed strikes. Trump has vetoed plans to restart major military operations several times this year, including earlier this month, when US and Israeli forces were reportedly almost fully prepared to launch attacks.
Iranian officials said Iran would broaden the scope of its retaliation if the United States and Israel attack again. Possible targets could extend beyond regional commercial shipping and energy infrastructure to data centres and undersea internet cables.
Iranian officials said the next conflict would neither end quickly nor remain limited in scope.
The United States is assembling substantial military weapons and equipment expected to be fully ready by early November. Diplomatic efforts are continuing alongside the military preparations.
US negotiators are using the threat of a possible new war to pressure Tehran into making progress on US demands concerning Iran’s nuclear programme and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian negotiators have so far refused to make concessions on the nuclear programme, maintaining that the issue should be discussed at a later stage of negotiations.
Some US planners believe a sustained three-day military operation could damage Iran’s economy sufficiently to force the country to alter its negotiating position. US officials have previously predicted Iran’s collapse on several occasions, while Western officials have noted that the Iranian government has survived despite economic pressure.
Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official during the Biden administration, said: “At this stage of the war, it is clear that neither the conventional military operations conducted so far, the current severe economic sanctions nor the US naval blockade has been able to bring the Iranian government back to the negotiating table in any meaningful way.”
Stroul, now with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said neither Trump nor Netanyahu had yet presented “a credible argument explaining how more war would resolve this strategic crisis, particularly in a region where instability and conflict are steadily increasing.”
Israel Election Could Complicate New War Plans
Israel is scheduled to hold an election on October 27, a development that could complicate new military plans.
Analysts said Netanyahu would serve as interim prime minister if he loses the election, making it difficult for him to begin a new war.
Some analysts believe Netanyahu could use the prospect of an imminent joint US-Israeli attack to pressure political rivals into forming a national unity government for conducting the war, potentially extending his time in office.
Netanyahu formed a national unity government after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Several opposition members were included in the wartime cabinet to participate in national security decisions.
Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and author of a biography of Netanyahu, said: “He may use this situation to call for a broader emergency government. But his political rivals will deeply distrust him.”
Mualem added: “If Iran attacks, the situation will be one thing. But it will be extremely difficult for him to initiate an attack himself.”
Officials said there remains a slim possibility that Trump could begin military operations this month. Political reasons, however, favour waiting rather than launching attacks before the US midterm elections.
Trump had promised earlier this month not to attack Iran before the election.
US forces and equipment are not expected to be fully ready before early November. The deployment is expected to include three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations forces.
The US military generally prefers to conduct attacks under cover of darkness. Hours of darkness over Iran will increase in early November.
Concerns also persist that the war could expand into a wider conflict. The US State Department on Wednesday ordered non-emergency government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia.
The Iran-backed Houthi militia group has continued attacking sites across Saudi Arabia.
Iran Hardens Position at Every Stage of War
Iran’s leadership has taken a harder position on negotiating concessions at every stage of the conflict. Iranian leaders believe the ultimate objective of the United States and Israel is to remove Iran’s government from power.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains largely an unknown figure to US and Israeli intelligence officials.
Some officials believe his authority is weaker than that of his father, who was killed early in the war. Those officials believe hardline members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are making the country’s key decisions.
Iranian officials said they are aware of US military planning and are developing new targets and strategies for retaliation.
Peyman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, said Iranian retaliation could include attacks on major Saudi oil refineries if the Pickaxe facility is struck. Potential targets could include facilities belonging to Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco.
Salehi said such attacks would immediately raise oil and energy prices.
“This war has taught us that the most effective way to pressure Trump is to raise oil and energy prices, because that would hurt the American public,” Salehi said.
Iran Calls 72-Hour War Plan a ‘Fantasy’
Mehdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of Iran’s negotiating team, said on social media this week that the idea that the United States could complete a new round of attacks on Iran and leave within 72 hours was merely a “fantasy”.
Mohammadi said Iran would decide when the war ends.
Mohammadi noted that Trump had also said in February that the war would last two weeks.
“Our attacks will be more intense, more creative and different from before,” Mohammadi said. “We are determined and confident. Strong plans have also been adopted for this.”